CHOICE Newsletter: Kyiv and Beijing, friend and partner?

Dear Reader,

Welcome to our latest newsletter! This month, our team takes a closer look at China’s evolving relationship with Ukraine, both in the present and in the context of a post-war future. Meanwhile, our colleague in Taiwan explores the island’s growing polarization over freedom of speech — a topic that continues to spark debate in many countries around the world.

We’re also excited to share that CHOICE has established a new partnership with the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), the largest China-focused think tank in Europe. Building on our existing collaborations with leading European institutions in China and Taiwan studies — including the Taiwan Research Hub at the University of Nottingham, the China Institute at SOAS, and LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics — this cooperation with MERICS will help broaden the reach of our work and further amplify the voices of Central and Eastern European China experts across Europe. Enjoy reading!

CHOICE Take

Will China Find Its Place in Post-War Ukraine?

The intensifying dialogue between the United States and Russia regarding the resolution of the war in Ukraine raises questions about China’s role in this process. Donald Trump’s position closely aligns with the proposals previously put forward by China in its 12-point peace plan and the joint Brazilian-Chinese statement on a peaceful settlement, both largely aimed at safeguarding Russia’s interests. Both Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have repeatedly emphasized that Beijing could play a critical role in resolving the conflict. The real question is, however, whether China is prepared to assume the role expected of it.  

Officially, Beijing has expressed support for peace efforts, including the recent consensus reached between the US and Russia. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that China is “willing to continue playing a constructive role in the political resolution of the crisis,” while President Zelensky further stressed that he is not opposed to China’s participation in peace negotiations. “We have always stated that we are prepared to have serious players participate. However, those willing to accept responsibility for security guarantees, assistance, stopping Putin, and investing in Ukraine’s reconstruction will be present at the bargaining table,” noted Zelensky.

According to the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag, Chinese diplomats have already proposed to the EU for Beijing to participate in a peacekeeping mission – widely seen as an attempt to enhance China’s peacekeeping image on the global stage while seizing the opportunity created by Euro-Atlantic tensions to restore relations with European countries. Beijing, however, denied any discussions regarding China’s participation in a peacekeeping mission, signaling a careful calculation of its strategic interests. On one hand, China wants to play a role in restoring European stability; on the other hand, it aims to avoid any discord with Moscow’s position, attempting to maintain a delicate balance in its relations with Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. As such, Beijing continues to refrain from practical steps toward conflict resolution, limiting itself to statements that impose no obligations. These include expressions of support for Europe’s involvement in peace talks and joint appeals through the “Group of Friends for Peace” initiative, urging “all interested parties to seize the opportunity and constructively participate in peace negotiations.”

At the same time, the ceasefire prospect has prompted China to explore a potential involvement in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, which, according to the latest official estimates, would amount to $524 billion. This involvement would serve two key objectives: enhancing China’s global role and influence in post-conflict Europe and providing economic benefits for Chinese companies in Ukraine through investments in infrastructure, energy, agriculture, and other sectors.

Despite providing significant support to Russia, China has sought to maintain its relations with Kyiv through political dialogue (at the level of foreign ministers) and economic cooperation. In 2024, China has become Ukraine’s leading trade partner, with a total trade value of $16.75 billion, and although Zelensky has repeatedly expressed his frustration with Beijing’s position, China’s influence over Russia and Putin means that Beijing may still assume a mediating role in the conflict. This has led China to intensify its diplomatic activities in Ukraine. On the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, during a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Andriy Sybiha, Wang Yi noted that Beijing considers Kyiv a “friend and partner,” seeking to develop China-Ukraine relations “in the long term.” Additionally, Li Min, spokesperson for the China International Development Cooperation Agency, underscored that China is ready to offer assistance compatible with its own capabilities and the wishes of the involved parties. He also highlighted that since the beginning of the war, China has provided Ukraine with four humanitarian aid shipments – an attempt to emphasize China’s humanitarian role, though this contribution remains limited when compared to the country’s economic potential.

Meanwhile, newly appointed Chinese Ambassador to Ukraine, Ma Shencun, is attempting to rehabilitate China’s image through a series of meetings with Ukrainian politicians, stakeholders, think tanks, academics, and students. The goal is to “explain the specifics of China’s current foreign policy, its stance on ending the war, and emphasize the importance of developing mutually beneficial partnerships between Beijing and Kyiv.” With the assistance of the Chinese ambassador, China has also expanded the list of agricultural exports from Ukraine for the first time in five years, now including peas and wild-caught aquatic products. Trade has always been a cornerstone of China’s foreign policy, which resonates in Ukraine, especially given its urgent need to secure product exports and expand markets.

However, China’s involvement in post-war reconstruction and recovery may face significant opposition from Ukrainian society. Its close ties with Russia position Beijing as an unfriendly actor to many Ukrainians, creating serious limitations on China’s prospects in Ukraine. Another obstacle could be the stance of the United States, which seeks to curb China’s global influence – a policy likely to extend to Ukraine. If Washington moves closer to Moscow by making concessions at Ukraine’s expense and neglecting the interests of its European allies, Beijing may find greater opportunities to improve its position in Ukraine and Europe. While the future remains uncertain, China is carefully calibrating its steps to maintain flexibility in its foreign policy while responding effectively to changing geopolitical dynamics in line with its strategic interests.

By Nataliya Butyrska, CHOICE Analyst (based in Ukraine)

Taiwan in Focus

Taiwan Strait: When Social Media is Weaponized to Deepen Polarization of the Island 

Since early March, a heated debate has been dividing Taiwanese public opinion: how to balance freedom of expression with national security concerns in the context of residency rights on both sides of the Strait. In Taiwan, at least three women born on the mainland but granted Taiwanese residency rights have publicly called on social media for military action or forced reunification of the island with the mainland. Taipei has reacted by ordering their deportation, citing threats to national security. Two left voluntarily, while one had to be escorted to a flight, having missed the March 31 deadline. Until that date, she continued to upload emotional videos on social media, claiming violations of human rights and freedom of expression. 

Meanwhile, in mainland China, dozens of Taiwanese citizens have accepted identity and residency cards issued by Beijing – an act prohibited under Taiwanese law. As a result, some have had their Taiwanese documents revoked or canceled. 

For Taiwan, this is a stark reminder that military threats are not confined to the sea or air, but can target a core value that defines its democracy: freedom of expression, for which many Taiwanese paid a high price before the state of emergency was lifted and the martial law repealed in 1987. In late 2022, Taipei decided to ban the use of TikTok in the public sector, assessing that a full ban would contradict its open policy on freedom of expression. However, if cases like that of Yaya – the woman who has already left the island and amassed half a million followers – multiply, they may put additional pressure on a legal system that is already affected by another crisis: the growing paralysis of the Constitutional Court due to bipartisan gridlock in parliament. 

By Filip Noubel, CHOICE Analyst (based in Taipei)

CHOICE News

 On March 4, the AMO China Team, in cooperation with the AMO Russia Team, organized a high-level, closed-door conference focused on the interconnected instabilities of Central and Eastern Europe and the Indo-Pacific amid an evolving geopolitical landscape. The event was opened by Miloš Vystrčil, President of the Czech Senate and the second-highest constitutional official in the country. The conference featured speakers such as Jiří Kozák (Deputy Minister at the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs), Nobushige Takamizawa (University of Tokyo), Barbora Marônková (NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division), Jakub Landovský (former Czech Ambassador to NATO), Hugo von Essen (Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies), Sanshiro Hosaka (International Centre for Defence and Security, Estonia) and others. (find out more)

At the same event, we published a research paper exploring the lessons Central and Eastern Europe can learn from China’s assertive policy in the Indo-Pacific, as well as what Japan, South Korea, and other countries in the region can take away from Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. (read it here)

Our founder and lead, Ivana Karásková, joined fellow WiCH co-chair Alicia García-Herrero, along with Bruegel’s Elina Ribakova and Yuyun Zhuan, on Bruegel’s The Sound of Economics podcast to discuss the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on EU-China relations. (tune in here)

 Our sister project MapInfluenCE published a new paper! Dominika Urhová examines the EU’s Global Gateway Initiative (GGI), contrasts it with the Belt and Road Initiative, and highlights the opportunities it presents for the Czech Republic, whose former minister became the EU Commissioner for  International Partnerships, responsible for implementing the GGI. (read it here)

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