Beyond America: The New Routes of Chinese Migration

Chinese people have been migrating for centuries – first within Asia, and from the 19^th century onward, in larger numbers to North and South America, Europe, Africa and Australia. In the 21^st century, migration increased as China became one of the world’s top economies, prompting more Chinese citizens to move abroad to study, work, and establish families.

The COVID-19 pandemic put an abrupt end to both domestic and international movements, and today, prospective migrants are exploring new avenues for their life plans. So, what are the new migration routes in 2025?

The Trauma of the Zero-COVID Policy

The first major disruption for Chinese families both inside and outside China came in late 2021, when the government imposed drastic restrictions on mobility across its borders, and within the country under the ‘zero-COVID’ policy. As an estimated 1.5 million Chinese people died during the pandemic, many family members working or studying abroad tried frantically to return to China. However, they often got stuck in lengthy cross-border quarantines or faced domestic travel bans. Some even lost their jobs abroad due to their prolonged stays in China.

During this period, countless stories emerged of people missing funerals and being unable to say goodbye to their loved ones. This deeply traumatic experience convinced many families to consider leaving China – for their own sake or for the sake of their children’s future – so they would never again feel trapped. A new term emerged: runxue (润学), where the first character is used for its sound that evokes the English word ‘run’ and the second means ‘study.’ Combined, the two translate loosely as ‘runology’ – a term describing the strategies developed by individuals, families and companies to facilitate migration out of China.

The Opening and Closing of the South American Route

For a long time, the United States remained a top destination for Chinese families for several reasons: the prestige of its Higher Education, the perceived importance and global influence of the English language, and the presence of Chinese communities offering support, with many migrants having friends or relatives living in the US who could help in their early days of transition. But starting in 2021, under the Biden administration, Chinese B-visa applications (non-immigrant visas for short-term stays) saw an almost 80 percent rejection rate.

For many, the only viable alternative became joining other migrants in the illegal Mexico-US border crossings. The journey often began in Ecuador, Colombia, and Panama, crossing the Darién jungle – a perilous route taken by as many as 400,000 migrants in 2023. It became so popular that detailed travel guides appeared on Douyin (TikTok’s domestic version). In 2023 and 2024, over 20,000 Chinese citizens entered the US from Mexico – a more than tenfold increase from 2022. As a result, by late 2023, about 40,000 Chinese citizens were listed for deportation by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency.

Under Trump’s second term, the South American route has become a dead end – not just for Chinese migrants. Besides, there are now talks of implementing a ban on student visas for Chinese citizens through a bill submitted by Republicans in Congress. Consequently, the US is losing its appeal as a top destination for both legal and illegal migration.

New Routes and Destinations: The Balkans

Europe used to be the second-most popular migration choice, especially as more European universities introduced English-language courses. But while China implemented a visa-free policy for two weeks for almost all EU countries in late 2024, reciprocity remains highly unlikely. Both the UK and the EU continue to enforce strict visa policies for Chinese citizens, along with imposing sanctions on individuals accused of supporting Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In April 2024, Spain – home to over 200,000 Chinese residents – canceled its ‘golden visa’ program for non-EU passport holders, following similar moves by Ireland (2023) and the Netherlands (2024). Germany, in 2024, rejected 50 percent of asylum requests from Chinese citizens.

In this environment, Serbia is emerging as a new strategic destination close to EU borders. Over 15,000 Chinese are now officially registered in the country, and probably more are living or passing through, with the hope to get access to the EU. Serbia and Bosnia do not require visas for Chinese citizens, making them more attractive than South American countries. From there, many attempt to cross illegally into Croatia, hoping to seek asylum in countries like Germany or France, where they have families or job opportunities.

Japan: A Traditional Destination Gaining Renewed Popularity

Japan has long attracted Chinese migrants and students, starting in the 19^th century with figures such as Lu Xun, the father of modern Chinese literature. It is estimated that by 2026, one million people of Chinese descent will be living in Japan. Facing a sharp decline in birthrates and a growing labor shortage, Japan has relaxed its once-strict immigration and citizenship laws.

Many Chinese migrants consider Japan as a better choice than the US because of a certain level of cultural commonality, high-quality universal healthcare, and geographic proximity to China – allowing easy and short trips back to China, as well as visits from relatives and friends. The real estate sector has also benefited from wealthy Chinese families buying prime properties in Japan’s largest cities. Safety is another factor. While Thailand saw an increase in Chinese migration during COVID-19, it is considered a risky destination given large human-trafficking scams near the Thai-Myanmar border where thousands of Chinese nationals have been lured.

Future Outlook

As the Chinese government becomes increasingly unable to uphold its part of the social contract, migration out of China is likely to remain an attractive option. Indeed, the domestic economic situation is bleak for many Chinese families: youth unemployment is soaring, and the value of real estate properties has been hit hard by the sector’s overcapacity.

Among the many consequences of this situation are delayed or indefinitely postponed marriages and a falling birth rate. In this context, young – and increasingly childless – Chinese people are more inclined to move abroad. Some also find living costs overseas to be lower than in urban China, particularly in parts of Asia and Europe when staying outside their major cities. The key question is whether countries considered preferred destinations – now mostly Europe and Japan – have the institutions and policies needed to turn new waves of Chinese migration into assets for addressing their own triple challenge: declining birth rates, an urgent need to improve their China competence, and the responsibility to push back against the Chinese government when it threatens sovereignty and democratic institutions.