Rivals Beyond Earth: China, the US, and the EU in the New Space Era

The quest to conquer space – the final frontier – has long stood as a testament to global ambition and technological prowess. In the 21st century, this pursuit is no longer confined to the Cold War rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union. Instead, it has expanded to include a more diverse array of actors, with China emerging as a formidable competitor alongside the US and the EU. The competition among these three actors in space technology is shaping the future of humanity’s extraterrestrial endeavors, with significant implications for geopolitics, economics, and security. Recent developments in China’s ambitious space initiatives include plans to build a satellite constellation rivaling Elon Musk’s Starlink, while already surpassing prior accomplishments in high-speed communication technology.

China’s Ascent: From Earth to the Stars

China’s space program has evolved from modest beginnings into a sophisticated and ambitious enterprise. Administered by the China National Space Administration (CNSA), the program has achieved significant milestones in recent years, signaling China’s intent to emerge as a global leader in space exploration. Among its notable achievements are the Chang’e lunar missions, including the first-ever landing on the far side of the Moon, and the Tianwen-1 Mars mission, which successfully deployed the Zhurong rover on the Martian surface in 2021.

The completion of the fully operational Tiangong space station in 2022 further underscores China’s status as a major player in space exploration. The Tiangong station was developed as a solitary project in response to the Wolf Amendment of 2011, which prohibits any bilateral cooperation between CNSA and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), including on the construction and operation of the International Space Station (ISS).

Further advancing its aspirations, China has also embarked on the ambitious Qianfan project, officially known as the Spacesail Constellation. Designed to rival SpaceX’s Starlink, the initiative aims to deploy a massive low-Earth orbit satellite network of approximately 14,000 satellites by 2030. Supported by substantial government investment, the constellation seeks to provide global broadband coverage while bolstering China’s dominance in space-based communications.

Beyond civilian applications, the Qianfan project has clear strategic and military implications, reflecting China’s drive to assert itself in the increasingly contested realm of Earth’s lower orbit. The importance of satellite communication was starkly demonstrated during the war in Ukraine, where reliable, high-speed networks have played a pivotal role, demonstrating how satellite communication can decisively influence the success or failure of operations. For Beijing, the ability to depend on a self-sufficient, high-speed satellite network in times of conflict could become a game-changing advantage.

China’s space program has been deeply integrated into its national strategy for technological self-reliance and military modernization. Investments in satellite technology serve dual purposes: strengthening global communication networks and enhancing military surveillance and navigation capabilities. China’s rhetoric of maintaining space research and funding for peaceful purposes, thus, clashes with the reality, which seems to show the program’s clear military orientation. Moreover, the country’s focus on developing reusable rockets, such as the Long March 9 rocket, and supporting a private space sector, underscores a long-term vision for sustaining its presence in orbit and outer space. Through these endeavors, China seeks to rival, if not surpass, the space-related capabilities of the United States and the European Union.

Shifting Dynamics for Western Space Powers

China’s rapid advancements in space technology pose significant challenges to the US and the EU. For decades, the United States has maintained a dominant position in space, with NASA and private companies like SpaceX driving innovation. Similarly, the European Union, through the European Space Agency (ESA), has excelled in scientific missions and satellite technologies. However, China’s progress threatens to erode this dominance, creating new pressures for both entities.

China’s achievements challenge US’s long-held technological supremacy. The potential militarization of space – evidenced by China’s development of anti-satellite weapons and hypersonic delivery systems – raises substantial security concerns. For example, China’s 2007 test of an anti-satellite weapon on one of its decommissioned weather satellites showcased its offensive capabilities, the effects of which continue to resonate. Economically, China’s cost-effective space solutions, including commercial satellite launches, threaten to undermine the competitive edge of US firms. By 2023, China’s space sector spending had outpaced most of the world, with only the US maintaining primacy.

Meanwhile, for the EU, China’s advancements expose vulnerabilities in funding and coordination. Unlike the United States, which benefits from a unified national strategy, the EU often contends with fragmented decision-making among its member states, which could hinder its ability to compete effectively with China’s focused and well-funded approach.

Competition in the New Space Economy

The competition between China, the United States, and the European Union extends beyond exploration and security into the burgeoning “New Space” economy, which encompasses commercial ventures such as satellite internet, space tourism, asteroid mining, and lunar resource exploitation. It has now become easier than ever for new space actors to enter the market, and China’s substantial investment in New Space signals its intent to capture a significant share of this emerging market. For example, its BeiDou satellite navigation system rivals the US’s GPS and the EU’s Galileo, offering an alternative for countries seeking to reduce dependence on Western systems. Developing a robust commercial space sector is a strategic priority for China, aimed at accelerating innovation, deploying state-of-the-art space technologies, and asserting its leadership in the global space economy.

The rivalry also involves the shaping of international norms and partnerships in space. China’s exclusion from collaborations such as the ISS has prompted it to forge alliances with countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. By providing affordable satellite launches and technology transfers, China is cultivating a global network of partners that could shift the balance of power in space governance. These partnerships also bolster China’s Belt and Road Initiative through its Space Information Corridor, which focuses on space-based cooperation. This development presents a strategic challenge to the United States and the European Union, as it could diminish their ability to set global standards for responsible space exploration and usage. Understanding the importance of preserving space for peaceful purposes is thus key for the future development of a global legal framework, agreed upon by all space superpowers.

Chinese Lunar Ambition: The Next Giant Leap

In a notable recent development, China has unveiled plans for a lunar base as part of its International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) initiative, in collaboration with Russia. Scheduled to begin construction in the 2030s, the project aims to establish a permanent human presence on the Moon by 2036. The ILRS has the potential to position China and its collaborators as leaders in the next phase of space exploration, focusing on resource extraction, scientific research, and sustainable habitation. This initiative underscores China’s determination to dominate the lunar economy, directly challenging the US-led Artemis program and escalating the geopolitical competition for space leadership.

Charting the Future of Space Rivalry

The competition in space technologies among China, the US, and the EU reflects broader geopolitical shifts of the 21st century. While this rivalry may exacerbate tensions and heighten pre-existing security concerns, it also has the potential to drive innovation, much like the Cold War space race. For the United States and the European Union, maintaining leadership in space will require renewed investments in research and development, closer collaboration with the private sector, and stronger international partnerships. As the potential militarization of space grows, closer cooperation on space regulations and laws will become all the more necessary.

China’s rapid ascent as a space power and its ambitions to advance its space-based technologies underscore the growing need for global dialogue on the responsible use of space. As of now, not only has China become second to the US in its ability to harness space for its national security advantage, but it is also proving to be well-versed in leveraging space to gain economic benefits.

Whether through competition or collaboration, the actions of the US, China, and the EU will play a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of space exploration. To avoid unnecessary conflicts, these powers must establish and maintain open lines of communication to resolve disputes, manage crises, and agree on common guidelines for peaceful and safe coexistence. The unfolding new space race offers immense promise as well as significant risks, serving as a reminder that the ultimate frontier is not only a battleground for nations but a shared domain for all of humanity.