Great Changes Unseen: The China-Russia Nexus and European Security

Xi Jinping’s China operates according to a “securitization of everything” paradigm – and its most important strategic relationship, viewed through that lens, is with Russia. This paper, originally published by ECFR and the outcome of a joint AMO–ECFR–OSW project, examines how China’s officially endorsed worldview – centered on “great changes unseen in a century” and rivalry with the United States – makes continued support for Russia a logical, durable policy choice rather than a tactical calculation. 

The authors argue that no “reverse Nixon” strategy by the West – peeling Russia away from China – is feasible, and that Europeans who believe economic incentives can alter Beijing’s calculus are mistaken. Drawing on Chinese academic and official sources, the paper maps three scenarios for China’s behavior depending on how the war in Ukraine ends, and concludes that in each case Beijing will work to preserve a stable, weakened Russia on its northern flank. The paper closes with concrete recommendations for a more strategically grounded European China policy – one built on the recognition that China is a deliberate enabler of Russia’s war on European soil.